Cantlay Crumbles & Hideki Shines @ Storied Riviera

Happy Monday Fore Long. So many topics for discussion this morning. But after walking the dog, a warm cup of coffee, and a few minutes to collect my thoughts... I have concluded what many have likely already said.

Patrick Cantlay needs to sign that LIV contract ASAP.

Do I like his game? Of course!

Am I annoyed I left him out of Swindy Thursday? Of course!

But his brutal pace of play, crazy business partners, and lack of big/major wins is getting tiresome. Stats show he is one of the best drivers of the golf ball on tour. Surgical with long to mid irons. Great around the greens. ALSO, one of the best putters on the planet. But tell me, why is this man never in contention for a major or winning at a difficult golf course on the Tour Circuit.

Cantlay feels like a household name but is always the first to forget. Sure, he had the cool hat thing at the Ryder Cup. Still got undressed by the Europeans on their soil. He has always had good looking women around him, but so has any other golfer that is successful. He is boys with Xander and many of the California crew on tour, but all of them suffer from the same lack of major wins conversation. BUT, 8 wins on the tour and I assume you can name 4 of them. I was shocked to see the total, but after seeing the events I gave myself a pass. Outside of a few Memorial wins and the Tour championship, his career hasn’t lived up to the hype or expectations.

(2017) – Shriners Hospitals for Children Open

(2019) – The Memorial Tournament

(2020 – 21) – Zozo Championship, The Memorial Tournament, BMW Championship, Tour Championship

(2022) – Zurich Classic (Team Event), BMW Championship

We all understand that time was taken off his career due to a car accident that led to him losing his best friend & caddie. But when I watched a young Cantlay shock the world at the Travelers in 2011, I thought we had the next superstar in the game. Now, he is a meme or parody for not only players but the fans. Winning is hard on the PGA Tour. I will always side with players there. But when you’re a supposedly top player, and you have a 5 shot lead in a hometown event. I mean, odds are in your favor Mr. Cantlay. I hope with Lacava on the bag, this narrative changes in the future. But I will need to see a lot more before I can back him confidently on the biggest stages.

Did y’all see Tiger playing? Great to see the Big Cat back on the course. From my eyes, I thought he looked great. Swing might be stiff, and the results are a little inconsistent, but his short game looked dialed, and this wasn’t an “injury” WD. I think he was sick, but bringing the ambulance might have been a little overkill. A cold hosel during round one on 18 left us with a sour taste in our mouth, but also reminded us that he is still human. Hope he recovers well and is back to full strength sooner than later.

I do pray that Tiger keeps his promise by saying he will play once a month this season. March will now give him 1 final tune up before the first major of the year in Augusta. Which tournament in March would fit his game best? I think all eyes point to the Players Championship.

Arnie’s event will have long rough, bowling lane fairways, and major championship firmness. Not great fits for Tiger’s current form & game. I get the history and his dominance of that course throughout his career, but this isn’t the tiger woods of old. Bay Hill would most likely chew him up and spit him out by Friday afternoon. Plus, this would only give him 4 weeks to recover from LA, and then leave him 5 weeks till the Masters.

The Players Championship gives him 1 extra week of rest, flat terrain to walk, a course that fits his current game/limitations, and one of the best crowds in golf to have his back for 2-4 days. This will also be exactly 1 month of prep for Mr. Woods to dissect Augusta and get his body back to full strength. We shall see what his decision is, but I think I speak for everyone when saying Tiger needs to have as many reps as possible before Augusta.

Don’t think that we have forgotten about Hideki Matsuyama, the Champion himself! Hideki has been a Fore Long Favorite since I joined in 2019. HB has supported and endorsed him for many years! While things were close to start Sunday, everyone seemed to crumble on the punishing back nine @ Riviera. Hideki was not a part of that narrative as he went on to shoot a clean 30 (-6) and dust the field scoring average by 8+ shots Sunday.

It is eerie to think this year was the first time that Hideki has been outside of the OWGR top 50 since 2013. That’s 10+ years of consistency and not often seen on tour. But with this win, he vaults himself back into the top 20, clears his schedule and secures more major starts in the future.

Also, Matsuyama is quietly headlining wins at top level venues. Including a major victory at Augusta in 2021, 2 WGC championships, The Memorial in 2014, and now Riviera. Hideki sits 1 win away from 10 total PGA victories while having 18 total worldwide victories. Matsuyama has one of the most underrated resumes and some could argue that he can be a Hall of Famer if he reaches 12-13 wins up and adds 1 more major.

This win also shows that the last blog still reigns true. Longshots remain here to stay for this PGA tour season. Hideki was 60-1 to open last week. While 60-1 seems like a favorite this PGA Tour season, the high odds are still hitting at an outrageous clip. With a weaker field this week in Mexico, don’t be surprised to see some new names atop the leaderboard come Saturday & Sunday.

Here are my favorite medium/long shots for this week at the Mexico Championship:

-          Patrick Rodgers +3500

-          Brandon Wu +3500

-          Erik Van Rooyen +4000

-          Austin Eckroat +6000

-          Maverick McNealy +7000

Mahalo,

Dingo